Why do we choose the Devil Magic scenario? Because those teams figure out whatever they need
to do to come back and win games that they're losing or tied in the late innings. These are the
teams that are behind late in the game but somehow figure a way to win. With division races on the line, every win is crucial and teams are battling it out even more so we tracked that too..
More specifically, we wanted to focus on the slow starters that don't have much of that "devil magic" in the first 3 months of the season but then "flip a switch" and have the GREATEST improvement in the last 3 months of the season. That improvement between the first half and second half is what we are scoring.
Important: For this Please pay attention to the ZScores. They are a useful way to determine how usual or unusual a data point is. Please see this youtube video as we marked it to go right to the spot you need to know
Putting it into perspective (mileage may vary),
A ZScore of 1.35 to 1.64 is like being selected to the all star team.
A Zscore of 2.0 or above is like being elected to the Hall of Fame
Late Inning Comeback Wins:
You are losing/tied in the 7th inning. Do you end up winning the game? If so, that’s a late inning comeback win.
Regular Comeback Wins:
You are losing at ANY time of the game and comeback to win? If so, that’s a comeback win.
Study 1. You are losing/tied in the 7th inning. Do you end up winning the game? How did you improve at this in the second half of the season compared to your first half?
The winners of this study can be considered to be teams that are just able to "stun" the opponents by winning the game late when it appeared that the other team was most likely going to win the game.
Best improvement from July till end of season scores over their first half scores
Devil Magic Late Inning Comeback Wins 1996 thru 2019
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (196-223, Pct .468) (Home 100-105, Pct .488) (Road: 96-118, Pct .449)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (253-220, Pct .535) (Home 150-101, Pct .598) (Road: 103-120, Pct .462)
Total won/loss in 1st half of seasons 1022-885
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season 1109-871
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Note their winning record at home vs road for late inning won/loss
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (191-213, Pct .473) (Home 94-96, Pct .495) (Road: 97-117, Pct .453)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (196-185, Pct 0.514) (Home 103-96, Pct .518) (Road: 93-89, Pct .511)
Total won/loss in first half 994-923
Total won/loss in 2nd half 975-998
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (196-223, Pct 0.468) (Home 100-105, Pct 0.488) (Road: 96-118, Pct 0.449)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (240-209, Pct .535) (Home 141-93, Pct .603) (Road: 99-116, Pct .460)
Total won/loss in 1st half of seasons 1022-885
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season 1109-871
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Note their winning record at home vs road for late inning won/loss
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (191-213, Pct 0.473) (Home 94-96, Pct 0.495) (Road: 97-117, Pct 0.453)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (166-152, Pct 0.522) (Home 84-82, Pct 0.506) (Road: 82-70, Pct 0.539)
Total won/loss in first half 994-923
Total won/loss in 2nd half 975-998
Score is too low to be significant
Devil Magic Late Inning Comeback Wins - 2003 thru 2019
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (141-154, Pct 0.478) (Home 67-79, Pct 0.459) (Road: 74-75, Pct 0.497)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (179-147, Pct 0.549) (Home 106-63, Pct 0.627) (Road: 73-84, Pct 0.465)
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Note their winning record at home vs road for late inning won/loss
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (152-144, Pct 0.514) (Home 85-75, Pct 0.531) (Road: 67-69, Pct 0.493)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (165-136, Pct 0.548) (Home 87-62, Pct 0.584) (Road: 78-74, Pct 0.513)
Total won/loss in first half 713-648
Total won/loss in 2nd half 749-640
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (141-154, Pct 0.478) (Home 67-79, Pct 0.459) (Road: 74-75, Pct 0.497)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (170-142, Pct 0.547) (Home 99-59, Pct 0.627) (Road: 71-82, Pct 0.464)
Total won/loss in first half 737-616
Total won/loss in 2nd half 790-610
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Note their winning record at home vs road for late inning won/loss
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (139-154, Pct 0.474) (Home 63-69, Pct 0.477) (Road: 76-85, Pct 0.472)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (117-100, Pct 0.539) (Home 62-55, Pct 0.530) (Road: 55-45, Pct 0.550)
Total won/loss in first half 713-648
Total won/loss in 2nd half 690-704
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? No, still finished under .500
Devil Magic - A 6 year period from 2013-2019 by division
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (61-83, Pct 0.424) (Home 32-42, Pct 0.432) (Road: 29-41, Pct 0.414)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (75-63, Pct 0.543) (Home 38-32, Pct 0.543) (Road: 37-31, Pct 0.544)
Total won/loss in first half 258-303
Total won/loss in 2nd half 305-268
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (57-61, Pct 0.483) (Home 27-38, Pct 0.415) (Road: 30-23, Pct 0.566)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (76-55, Pct 0.580) (Home 42-24, Pct 0.636) (Road: 34-31, Pct 0.523)
Total won/loss in first half 305-255
Total won/loss in 2nd half 330-244
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (53-68, Pct 0.438) (Home 25-33, Pct 0.431) (Road: 28-35, Pct 0.444)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (59-63, Pct 0.484) (Home 33-28, Pct 0.541) (Road: 26-35, Pct 0.426)
Total won/loss in first half 281-290
Total won/loss in 2nd half 251-313
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (56-72, Pct 0.438) (Home 25-42, Pct 0.373) (Road: 31-30, Pct 0.508)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (61-67, Pct 0.477) (Home 39-32, Pct 0.549) (Road: 22-35, Pct 0.386)
Total won/loss in first half 285-287
Total won/loss in 2nd half 298-265
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (63-71, Pct 0.470) (Home 29-33, Pct 0.468) (Road: 34-38, Pct 0.472)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (56-53, Pct 0.514) (Home 26-21, Pct 0.553) (Road: 30-32, Pct 0.484)
Total won/loss in first half 266-290
Total won/loss in 2nd half 252-323
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (65-72, Pct 0.474) (Home 28-32, Pct 0.467) (Road: 37-40, Pct 0.481)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (59-46, Pct 0.562) (Home 30-27, Pct 0.526) (Road: 29-19, Pct 0.604)
Total won/loss in first half 285-289
Total won/loss in 2nd half 270-290
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (61-83, Pct 0.424) (Home 32-42, Pct 0.432) (Road: 29-41, Pct 0.414)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (62-56, Pct 0.525) (Home 29-29, Pct 0.500) (Road: 33-27, Pct 0.550)
Total won/loss in first half 258-303
Total won/loss in 2nd half 305-268
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (57-61, Pct 0.483) (Home 27-38, Pct 0.415) (Road: 30-23, Pct 0.566)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (74-54, Pct 0.578) (Home 40-23, Pct 0.635) (Road: 34-31, Pct 0.523)
Total won/loss in first half 305-255
Total won/loss in 2nd half 330-244
Did the "devil magic"-improvement help them overall? Yes
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (73-66, Pct 0.525) (Home 34-28, Pct 0.548) (Road: 39-38, Pct 0.506)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (66-50, Pct 0.569) Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (66-51, Pct 0.564) (Home 43-23, Pct 0.652) (Road: 23-28, Pct 0.451)
Total won/loss in first half 328-248
Total won/loss in 2nd half 343-216
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (56-72, Pct 0.438) (Home 25-42, Pct 0.373) (Road: 31-30, Pct 0.508)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (54-59, Pct 0.478) (Home 35-30, Pct 0.538) (Road: 19-29, Pct 0.396)
Total won/loss in first half 285-287
Total won/loss in 2nd half 298-265
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (55-67, Pct 0.451) (Home 27-32, Pct 0.458) (Road: 28-35, Pct 0.444)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (52-48, Pct 0.520) (Home 21-21, Pct 0.500) (Road: 31-27, Pct 0.534)
Total won/loss in first half 267-287
Total won/loss in 2nd half 275-305
Score is too low to be significant
Total late inning won/loss 1st half (65-72, Pct 0.474) (Home 28-32, Pct 0.467) (Road: 37-40, Pct 0.481)
Total late inning won/loss 2nd half (54-40, Pct 0.574) (Home 27-25, Pct 0.519) (Road: 27-15, Pct 0.643)
Total won/loss in first half 299-271
Total won/loss in 2nd half 265-300
Score is too low to be significant
Study 2 - You are losing at ANY time of the game and comeback to win?
Best improvement from July till end of season scores over their first half scores. Oakland had some pretty awesome teams in the early 2000's which drove up the zscores. From the 2003-on study, their scores dropped
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (341-381, Pct 0.472) (Home 166-178, Pct 0.483) (Road: 175-203, Pct 0.463) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (398-357, Pct 0.527) (Home 216-164, Pct 0.568) (Road: 182-193, Pct 0.485) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (970-956, Pct 0.504) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (1063-897, Pct 0.542)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (336-342, Pct 0.496)
(Home 173-167, Pct 0.509)
(Road: 163-175, Pct 0.482)
Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (387-336, Pct 0.535)
(Home 215-161, Pct 0.572)
(Road: 172-175, Pct 0.496)
Total won/loss in 1st half of season (1022-885, Pct 0.536)
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (1109-871, Pct 0.560)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (245-246, Pct 0.499) (Home 121-121, Pct 0.500) (Road: 124-125, Pct 0.498) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (285-214, Pct 0.571) (Home 151-91, Pct 0.624) (Road: 134-123, Pct 0.521) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (717-648, Pct 0.525) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (749-640, Pct 0.539)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (238-236, Pct 0.502)
(Home 116-123, Pct 0.485)
(Road: 122-113, Pct 0.519)
Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (276-216, Pct 0.561)
(Home 151-95, Pct 0.614)
(Road: 125-121, Pct 0.508)
Total won/loss in 1st half of season (737-616, Pct 0.545)
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (790-610, Pct 0.564)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (112-126, Pct 0.471) (Home 59-63, Pct 0.484) (Road: 53-63, Pct 0.457) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (123-113, Pct 0.521) (Home 60-59, Pct 0.504) (Road: 63-54, Pct 0.538) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (319-335, Pct 0.488) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (311-331, Pct 0.484) 2012-2019 - National League (Winner St. Louis Cardinals) with a ZScore of 2.50
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (111-121, Pct 0.478)
(Home 53-66, Pct 0.445)
(Road: 58-55, Pct 0.513)
Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (139-92, Pct 0.602)
(Home 71-46, Pct 0.607)
(Road: 68-46, Pct 0.596)
Total won/loss in 1st half of season (345-293, Pct 0.541)
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (378-280, Pct 0.574)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (341-381, Pct 0.472) (Home 166-178, Pct 0.483) (Road: 175-203, Pct 0.463) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (352-306, Pct 0.535) (Home 198-138, Pct 0.589) (Road: 154-168, Pct 0.478) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (970-956, Pct 0.504) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (1063-897, Pct 0.542)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (336-342, Pct 0.496)
(Home 173-167, Pct 0.509)
(Road: 163-175, Pct 0.482)
Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (363-312, Pct 0.538)
(Home 201-147, Pct 0.578)
(Road: 162-165, Pct 0.495)
Total won/loss in 1st half of season (1022-885, Pct 0.536)
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (1109-871, Pct 0.560)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (245-246, Pct 0.499) (Home 121-121, Pct 0.500) (Road: 124-125, Pct 0.498) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (253-185, Pct 0.578) (Home 136-78, Pct 0.636) (Road: 117-107, Pct 0.522) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (717-648, Pct 0.525) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (749-640, Pct 0.539)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (238-236, Pct 0.502)
(Home 116-123, Pct 0.485)
(Road: 122-113, Pct 0.519)
Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (259-209, Pct 0.553)
(Home 141-91, Pct 0.608)
(Road: 118-118, Pct 0.500)
Total won/loss in 1st half of season (737-616, Pct 0.545)
Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (790-610, Pct 0.564)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (242-237, Pct 0.505) (Home 118-112, Pct 0.513) (Road: 124-125, Pct 0.498) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (191-206, Pct 0.481) (Home 101-99, Pct 0.505) (Road: 90-107, Pct 0.457) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (663-699, Pct 0.487) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (632-760, Pct 0.454)
Total COMEBACK won/loss 1st half (110-121, Pct 0.476) (Home 53-66, Pct 0.445) (Road: 57-55, Pct 0.509) Total COMEBACK inning won/loss 2nd half (136-90, Pct 0.602) (Home 68-45, Pct 0.602) (Road: 68-45, Pct 0.602) Total won/loss in 1st half of season (345-293, Pct 0.541) Total won/loss in 2nd half of season (378-280, Pct 0.574)
Study 3 - Both scenarios above combined together
For this, we combined the zscores for both late inning and regular comebacks and performed zscores on the combinations
1996-2019 AL Cleveland Indians with ZScore of 0.91
1996-2019 NL St. Louis Cardinals with ZScore of 2.64
2003-2019 - American League (AL Winner Anaheim Angels) with a ZScore of 1.89
2003-2019 - National League (Winner St. Louis Cardinals) with a ZScore of 2.43
2012-2019 - American League (AL Winner Oakland A's) with a ZScore of 1.06
2012-2019 - National League (Winner St. Louis Cardinals) with a ZScore of 2.82
2016-2019 - American League (AL Winner Oakland A's) with a ZScore of 0.91
2016-2019 - National League (Winner St. Louis Cardinals) with a ZScore of 2.59
==> With weight calculations applied
Note: In all of the data, the Montreal Expos will be represented as WAS in the charts/results. So from 1980 - 2004, the data reflects the Expos in the datasets. In 2005-present, it's the nationals. We have accounted for that in our program but labeled them both as WAS.
Please send us any feedback/comments and suggestions for other scenarios.
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