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Late Inning Rallies to Win games in the American League Central 2013-2019 with weights

Updated: Feb 24, 2020

This is the same scenario as this but with weights applied to each number to account for their percent within the total population of occurences within the sample.



Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.

ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5

"Which team in the AL Central had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2013 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.

From July to the end of regular season:

2nd half inn Rally wins: Detroit Tigers: 0.63






The figures based on this time frame (2013-2019)

Green: Most improved "devil magic" AL team in the 2nd half of the season in this division


Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
    Team  ZScoreImprovement
10  DET           0.693813
16  MIN           0.541318
12  KCA           0.437025
8   CLE          -0.436023
5   CHA          -0.927741


   Team  ZScoreImprovement  2ndHalfImprovement  1stHalfImprovement
10  DET           0.693813            0.174121           -0.556594
16  MIN           0.541318           -0.196486           -0.760125
12  KCA           0.437025            0.465921            0.000000
8   CLE          -0.436023            0.129925            0.588266
5   CHA          -0.927741           -0.856230            0.137072


   Team  Disp1stHalfLIW  Disp1stHalfLIL  Disp2ndHalfLIW  Disp2ndHalfLIL
10  DET              63              71              56              53
16  MIN              55              67              60              63
12  KCA              66              66              66              59
8   CLE              57              46              62              60
5   CHA              67              65              61              73

Weighted..
   Team  1stHalfLIW  1stHalfLIL  2ndHalfLIW  2ndHalfLIL
10  DET    2.060748    2.617342    1.669862    1.495740
16  MIN    1.570613    2.330737    1.916933    2.113419
12  KCA    2.261682    2.261682    2.319489    1.853568
8   CLE    1.686916    1.098650    2.046858    1.916933
5   CHA    2.330737    2.193666    1.981363    2.837593
   Team  1stHalfW  1stHalfL  2ndHalfW  2ndHalfL
10  DET       266       290       252       323
16  MIN       267       287       275       305
12  KCA       260       297       288       289
8   CLE       297       263       341       231
5   CHA       246       312       245       330

The data file can be found here

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