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Late Inning Rallies to Win games in the National League Central - 2013-2019 with weights

Updated: Feb 24, 2020

This is the same scenario as this but with weights applied to each number to account for their percent within the total population of occurences within the sample.



Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.


ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5

"Which team in the NL Central had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2013 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.

From July to the end of regular season:

Best: St. Louis Cardinals 1.60










The figures based on this time frame (2013-2019)

Green: Most improved "devil magic" NL team in the 2nd half of the season in this division


Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
    Team  ZScoreImprovement
25  SLN           1.602705
21  PIT           1.296668
7   CIN          -0.133071
6   CHN          -0.199976
15  MIL          -0.236374

   Team  ZScoreImprovement  2ndHalfImprovement  1stHalfImprovement
25  SLN           1.602705            1.464856           -0.245067
21  PIT           1.296668            1.320554           -0.064901
7   CIN          -0.133071           -1.183706           -1.020249
6   CHN          -0.199976           -0.465921           -0.245067
15  MIL          -0.236374           -0.066560            0.185358


   Team  Disp1stHalfLIW  Disp1stHalfLIL  Disp2ndHalfLIW  Disp2ndHalfLIL
25  SLN              57              61              76              55
21  PIT              62              63              72              52
7   CIN              58              73              49              68
6   CHN              57              61              59              66
15  MIL              61              58              62              63

Weighted..
   Team  1stHalfLIW  1stHalfLIL  2ndHalfLIW  2ndHalfLIL
25  SLN    1.686916    1.931983    3.075612    1.610756
21  PIT    1.995846    2.060748    2.760383    1.439830
7   CIN    1.746625    2.766874    1.278488    2.462194
6   CHN    1.686916    1.931983    1.853568    2.319489
15  MIL    1.931983    1.746625    2.046858    2.113419
   Team  1stHalfW  1stHalfL  2ndHalfW  2ndHalfL
25  SLN       305       255       330       244
21  PIT       289       273       295       276
7   CIN       260       303       248       323
6   CHN       292       267       318       258
15  MIL       285       284       283       283

The data file can be found here

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