This is the same scenario as this but with weights applied to each number to account for their percent within the total population of occurences within the sample.
https://baseballfan999.wixsite.com/baseballdat/post/late-inning-rallies-to-win-games-in-the-national-league-east
Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.
ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5
From July to the end of regular season:
2nd half inn Rally wins: New York Mets 2.00
2nd half late inn losses: Atlanta -0.63
The figures based on this time frame (2013-2019)
Green: Most improved "devil magic" NL team in the 2nd half of the season in this division
Red: Most declined in this division
Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
Team ZScoreImprovement
18 NYN 2.389292
14 MIA 0.346389
29 WAS 0.116241
20 PHI -0.639186
2 ATL -0.729310
Team ZScoreImprovement 2ndHalfImprovement 1stHalfImprovement
18 NYN 2.389292 0.881789 -1.644860
25 SLN 1.602705 1.464856 -0.245067
21 PIT 1.296668 1.320554 -0.064901
27 TEX 1.154073 0.726837 -0.497923
23 SEA 0.710469 -0.072950 -0.816719
10 DET 0.693813 0.174121 -0.556594
9 COL 0.655439 -0.259851 -0.942368
26 TBA 0.631264 -0.408946 -1.063344
16 MIN 0.541318 -0.196486 -0.760125
0 ANA 0.497628 0.599042 0.066978
12 KCA 0.437025 0.465921 0.000000
13 LAN 0.394167 0.934505 0.505192
14 MIA 0.346389 -0.790735 -1.138629
17 NYA 0.199247 0.720447 0.500000
29 WAS 0.116241 0.255591 0.130841
7 CIN -0.133071 -1.183706 -1.020249
19 OAK -0.157995 0.370075 0.531672
6 CHN -0.199976 -0.465921 -0.245067
15 MIL -0.236374 -0.066560 0.185358
4 BOS -0.340670 0.519702 0.870717
3 BAL -0.367754 0.000000 0.388889
8 CLE -0.436023 0.129925 0.588266
20 PHI -0.639186 -0.894569 -0.204050
2 ATL -0.729310 0.502662 1.262721
22 SDN -0.868281 -0.519702 0.404984
28 TOR -0.893505 -0.375399 0.573209
5 CHA -0.927741 -0.856230 0.137072
24 SFN -1.462744 0.000000 1.540498
11 HOU -1.574315 -1.363152 0.319315
1 ARI -2.698793 -1.797125 1.075805
Team Disp1stHalfLIW Disp1stHalfLIL Disp2ndHalfLIW Disp2ndHalfLIL
18 NYN 61 83 75 63
25 SLN 57 61 76 55
21 PIT 62 63 72 52
27 TEX 65 72 59 46
23 SEA 66 77 68 69
10 DET 63 71 56 53
9 COL 53 68 59 63
26 TBA 56 72 61 67
16 MIN 55 67 60 63
0 ANA 65 64 67 58
12 KCA 66 66 66 59
13 LAN 73 66 66 51
14 MIA 56 73 62 73
17 NYA 58 49 67 56
29 WAS 64 62 62 58
7 CIN 58 73 49 68
19 OAK 68 60 72 67
6 CHN 57 61 59 66
15 MIL 61 58 62 63
4 BOS 71 58 65 57
3 BAL 57 50 59 59
8 CLE 57 46 62 60
20 PHI 64 67 53 67
2 ATL 84 68 63 55
22 SDN 68 62 57 65
28 TOR 73 65 68 73
5 CHA 67 65 61 73
24 SFN 76 53 69 69
11 HOU 64 59 54 74
1 ARI 81 67 49 76
Weighted..
Team 1stHalfLIW 1stHalfLIL 2ndHalfLIW 2ndHalfLIL
18 NYN 1.931983 3.576843 2.995208 2.113419
25 SLN 1.686916 1.931983 3.075612 1.610756
21 PIT 1.995846 2.060748 2.760383 1.439830
27 TEX 2.193666 2.691589 1.853568 1.126731
23 SEA 2.261682 3.078401 2.462194 2.535144
10 DET 2.060748 2.617342 1.669862 1.495740
9 COL 1.458463 2.400831 1.853568 2.113419
26 TBA 1.628245 2.691589 1.981363 2.390309
16 MIN 1.570613 2.330737 1.916933 2.113419
0 ANA 2.193666 2.126687 2.390309 1.791267
12 KCA 2.261682 2.261682 2.319489 1.853568
13 LAN 2.766874 2.261682 2.319489 1.384984
14 MIA 1.628245 2.766874 2.046858 2.837593
17 NYA 1.746625 1.246625 2.390309 1.669862
29 WAS 2.126687 1.995846 2.046858 1.791267
7 CIN 1.746625 2.766874 1.278488 2.462194
19 OAK 2.400831 1.869159 2.760383 2.390309
6 CHN 1.686916 1.931983 1.853568 2.319489
15 MIL 1.931983 1.746625 2.046858 2.113419
4 BOS 2.617342 1.746625 2.249734 1.730032
3 BAL 1.686916 1.298027 1.853568 1.853568
8 CLE 1.686916 1.098650 2.046858 1.916933
20 PHI 2.126687 2.330737 1.495740 2.390309
2 ATL 3.663551 2.400831 2.113419 1.610756
22 SDN 2.400831 1.995846 1.730032 2.249734
28 TOR 2.766874 2.193666 2.462194 2.837593
5 CHA 2.330737 2.193666 1.981363 2.837593
24 SFN 2.998962 1.458463 2.535144 2.535144
11 HOU 2.126687 1.807373 1.552716 2.915868
1 ARI 3.406542 2.330737 1.278488 3.075612
Team 1stHalfW 1stHalfL 2ndHalfW 2ndHalfL
18 NYN 258 303 305 268
14 MIA 242 321 244 325
29 WAS 307 257 325 245
20 PHI 251 316 256 311
2 ATL 291 275 278 289The data file can be found here
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