In this scenario, we will focus on those teams that have the greatest improvement in OBP (on base percentage) from the 2nd half of the season over the 1st half of the season from the start of the 7th inning on till the end of the game. This is a continuation (more granular) study of the "devil magic" teams that we did in this study here.
Why a study on OBP in the 7th inning on? We feel it reveals teams that know how to "put it together more" when it is in the 2nd half of the season and you're "late in the game". This will contribute to a teams ability to "come back from behind and win late in the game". It's more special in the 2nd half of the season when most teams are battling it out for a playoff spot.
The widest positive gap between the orange and blue bar (where orange is > blue) means the best improvement in the 2nd half of the season. In the chart below, you can see Boston had the biggest decline in the 2nd half even tho they're still positive. St. Louis had the biggest 2nd half improvement.
How to read: Orange = 2nd half of the season improvement at home over the first half season at home. Blue = 2nd half of the season improvement on the road over the first half of the season on the road. The widest gap between orange and blue is the winner.
How to read these ZScores: Blue = 1st half of the season at Home. Orange = 1st half of the season on the road. Green: 2nd half of the season at Home. Red = 2nd half of the season on the road.
So what can you can infer from below (and apply to other teams) is "if the green bar is taller than the blue bar, then the team improved at home in late inning OBP. Otherwise, they declined in the 2nd half. If the red bar is > orange bar, then they improved on the road in the late inning OBP in the 2nd half. Otherwise they declined".
The widest gap between green and blue is the winner. In the case of the Cardinals, you can say their home record (green over blue) was astonishing. As for their road record, it's good (red over orange) but but as dramatic as their home record
The figures based on this time frame (2004-2019)
If analyzing this, it's worth noting that the Mile High climate may cause the Colorado spike as that stadium has (as others have said) influenced offensive numbers. For the other stadiums, it's not the case. Also worth noting, the Yankees and Red Sox tend to drop in the 2nd half whereas the Cardinals and Pirates spiked upwards in the 2nd half.
Team ZScoresHome ZScoresRoad
25 SLN 2.603976 0.613988
21 PIT 1.416004 -1.822187
29 WAS 1.340493 0.937464
22 SDN 1.173262 -1.404243
9 COL 1.103121 0.704955
0 ANA 0.973835 0.690266
14 MIA 0.723242 0.742923
1 ARI 0.690236 -0.481307
12 KCA 0.521985 0.051442
11 HOU 0.380703 0.269294
27 TEX 0.315819 -0.893699
17 NYA 0.187940 -0.199771
5 CHA 0.177600 -0.243891
24 SFN 0.103965 -0.340045
20 PHI 0.072056 0.007676
18 NYN -0.014937 1.579606
16 MIN -0.041204 1.954246
19 OAK -0.069195 -0.695819
8 CLE -0.226026 1.975538
13 LAN -0.321799 -1.376176
2 ATL -0.458248 -0.272732
15 MIL -0.576189 1.639639
23 SEA -0.684449 -0.091838
26 TBA -0.991327 0.148820
10 DET -1.004880 -0.502599
7 CIN -1.216779 0.444057
6 CHN -1.419988 -0.970172
28 TOR -1.461518 -0.762316
3 BAL -1.505029 0.095831
4 BOS -1.792666 -1.798952
Team Home1stHf Road1stHf Home2ndHf Road2ndHf
25 SLN 328.4 322.7 348.7 325.6
21 PIT 317.0 316.4 326.1 302.4
29 WAS 320.9 313.5 330.0 319.0
22 SDN 308.1 323.1 313.9 311.8
9 COL 349.4 292.8 361.0 297.4
0 ANA 318.4 320.9 324.2 324.4
14 MIA 319.0 311.6 322.9 315.8
1 ARI 328.5 317.1 333.6 312.5
12 KCA 320.3 309.9 322.8 309.3
11 HOU 322.4 313.6 324.1 314.4
27 TEX 327.7 311.5 329.7 304.2
17 NYA 342.1 330.6 345.3 327.5
5 CHA 316.0 313.4 315.1 310.6
24 SFN 325.0 316.9 324.9 313.3
20 PHI 323.4 326.6 322.8 325.1
18 NYN 316.2 316.7 313.8 326.6
16 MIN 328.6 312.0 327.9 324.7
19 OAK 322.9 319.7 321.1 313.5
8 CLE 331.0 313.4 329.2 326.2
13 LAN 330.1 334.3 327.4 322.8
2 ATL 332.6 324.6 329.2 321.2
15 MIL 324.4 314.5 318.8 324.9
23 SEA 315.7 309.7 307.9 308.1
26 TBA 330.9 315.1 323.0 315.0
10 DET 331.6 315.7 323.7 311.0
7 CIN 332.8 314.4 323.4 316.4
6 CHN 335.5 318.9 324.9 310.8
28 TOR 329.2 317.8 317.3 311.2
3 BAL 326.9 304.6 314.3 304.5
4 BOS 351.5 335.1 340.4 320.6as far as reading the charts below, please see the description above in the 2004-2019 section as we wanted to increase load time on the page.
The figures based on this time frame (2010-2019)
If analyzing this, it's worth noting that the Mile High climate may cause the Colorado spike as that stadium has (as others have said) influenced offensive numbers. For the other stadiums, it's not the case. Also worth noting, the Yankees and Red Sox tend to drop in the 2nd half whereas the Cardinals and Pirates spiked upwards in the 2nd half.
Team ZScoresHomeImprove ZScoresRoadImprove
25 SLN 1.727842 0.357260
29 WAS 1.660393 0.159734
9 COL 1.419279 1.430718
5 CHA 0.999297 0.409630
15 MIL 0.993380 1.753510
27 TEX 0.759258 -0.525169
20 PHI 0.687822 -0.385153
10 DET 0.608936 -0.682095
24 SFN 0.585507 0.073329
11 HOU 0.539943 -1.276079
18 NYN 0.490611 1.960047
8 CLE 0.424603 1.624355
1 ARI 0.407207 -0.977603
21 PIT 0.383381 -0.318222
28 TOR 0.069609 1.306809
22 SDN 0.017188 -1.751582
14 MIA -0.061020 0.541238
13 LAN -0.073501 -0.593629
12 KCA -0.145792 0.209240
26 TBA -0.159567 0.385236
3 BAL -0.279468 -1.254566
19 OAK -0.516607 -1.638623
23 SEA -0.710990 -0.272411
16 MIN -0.926776 1.316546
17 NYA -0.951133 0.093423
0 ANA -1.036669 -0.298537
7 CIN -1.081689 0.725741
2 ATL -1.148491 -0.697156
6 CHN -1.975613 -0.449420
4 BOS -2.706942 -1.226568
Team Home1stHf Road1stHf Home2ndHf Road2ndHf
25 SLN 324.8 321.3 339.5 324.4
29 WAS 320.9 308.9 334.8 309.5
9 COL 345.3 280.5 358.3 294.7
5 CHA 305.0 308.8 312.2 312.2
15 MIL 311.9 310.1 319.4 328.6
27 TEX 325.3 312.4 331.4 305.4
20 PHI 308.4 313.7 313.0 308.3
10 DET 324.1 315.0 328.8 306.3
24 SFN 318.4 311.9 322.6 311.6
11 HOU 314.6 322.0 318.2 306.8
18 NYN 309.5 309.4 312.4 330.2
8 CLE 321.0 303.5 323.9 320.4
1 ARI 329.9 315.6 333.1 303.6
21 PIT 318.4 311.5 320.8 306.8
28 TOR 322.2 301.8 322.0 315.1
22 SDN 305.9 314.7 304.4 294.0
14 MIA 311.7 305.5 309.8 310.3
13 LAN 321.7 328.4 320.2 321.0
12 KCA 320.6 306.5 318.4 307.6
26 TBA 323.0 312.0 320.8 315.2
3 BAL 316.5 302.8 312.9 287.4
19 OAK 322.6 320.5 317.2 301.2
23 SEA 305.6 302.2 297.6 297.8
16 MIN 329.5 301.4 320.8 314.8
17 NYA 335.7 319.5 327.1 319.6
0 ANA 319.3 319.3 309.1 315.0
7 CIN 329.1 311.2 319.0 318.2
2 ATL 329.0 326.7 318.3 318.1
6 CHN 334.2 314.6 316.4 308.5
4 BOS 350.1 328.3 326.6 313.8
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