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Late Inning Rallies to Win games in the National League West 2013-2019

Updated: Feb 10, 2020

Please see Disclaimer here regarding all of the results contained within all pages.


Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.


ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5

"Which team in the NL West had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2013 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.

From July to the end of regular season:

2nd half inn Rally wins: Rockies 1.20

Colorado still did not do good in the actual won/loss dept but they did improve on their late inning rally spread in the 2nd half of the season.


2nd half late inn losses: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.47


If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see:


The

difference in won loss spread ((late inn win)-(late inn loss)) between 1st/2nd half of season. Orange means "The games they won by late inning rallies - games they lost in the late innings". Blue means "The games they won by late inning rallies - the games they lost in the late innings". Positive values are always good. Focus on the Orange ZScore (late inn win and losses) between 1st/2nd half of season. Positive value means "better in the 2nd half".




The figures based on this time frame (2013-2019)

Green: Most improved "devil magic" NL team in the 2nd half of the season in this division

Red: Most declined in this division

Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
   Team  ZScoreTotalImprovement
0  SFN               -0.616413
1  LAN                0.994880
2  SDN               -0.107866
3  COL                1.202983
4  ARI               -1.473583

Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
   Team  FirstHalfTotW  FirstHalfLateW  SecondHalfTotW  SecondHalfLateW
0  SFN            289              75             260               69
1  LAN            328              73             343               66
2  SDN            258              68             244               57
3  COL            281              53             251               59
4  ARI            290              81             263               49

Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
   Team  FirstHalfTotL  FirstHalfLateL  SecondHalfTotL  SecondHalfLateL
0  SFN            283              53             302               69
1  LAN            248              66             216               50
2  SDN            313              62             319               65
3  COL            290              67             313               63
4  ARI            283              67             298               76

First and 2nd half improvement ZScores
   Team  FirstHalfImprovementZScores  SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0  SFN                        1.253                         0.332
1  LAN                        0.000                         1.487
2  SDN                       -0.084                        -0.245
3  COL                       -1.755                         0.043
4  ARI                        0.585                        -1.617 

Here's the input data generated by the custom program designed to extract the scenario.Apr includes March reg season games. Sept includes Oct reg season games.


Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,TotAprW,TotAprL,TotMayW,TotMayL,TotJunW,TotJunL,TotJulW,TotJulL,TotAugW,TotAugL,TotSepW,TotSepL SFN,26,16,32,12,17,25,24,19,20,26,25,24,89,98,110,87,90,98,84,90,90,106,86,106 LAN,19,27,20,21,34,18,27,11,24,21,15,18,99,86,109,86,120,76,112,58,116,78,115,80 SDN,19,21,26,20,23,21,17,24,19,23,21,18,81,108,92,104,85,101,74,102,87,104,83,113 COL,20,19,19,20,14,28,11,20,28,26,20,17,98,88,96,95,87,107,77,97,80,115,94,101 ARI,31,24,22,28,28,15,12,21,24,28,13,27,99,91,89,104,102,88,80,92,95,99,88,107

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