Please see Disclaimer here regarding all of the results contained within all pages.
Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.
ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5
"Which team in the NL had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2003 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.
From July to the end of regular season:
2nd half inn Rally wins: St. Louis Cardinals Zscore 2.42
2nd half late inn losses: Arizona Diamondbacks ZScore -1.45
If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see:
Note: We did take the league change where the Houston switched leagues after 2012 so their figures from 2013 on were not included. We also treat Montreal as WSH.
The difference in won loss spread ((late inn win)-(late inn loss)) between 1st/2nd half of season. Orange means "The games they won by late inning rallies - games they lost in the late innings". Blue means "The games they won by late inning rallies - the games they lost in the late innings". Postive values are always good. Here you can see the St. Louis Cardinals had a dramatic 2nd half positive increase due to the orange compared to the first half of the season. So the Cardinals have patented the 2nd half "voodoo" and "devil magic" that people talk about. The 2nd half surge has helped them get into many playoffs during this period.
Focus on the Orange
ZScore (late inn win and losses) between 1st/2nd half of season. Positive value means "better in the 2nd half".
The figures based on this time frame 2003-2019
Green Most improved "devil magic" NL team in the 2nd half of the season
Red: Most declined in the NL team in the 2nd half of the season
Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
Team ZScoreTotalImprovement
0 CIN 0.181033
1 SLN 2.415652
2 PIT -0.165809
3 CHN -0.627383
4 SFN -0.525890
5 SDN -1.383729
6 LAN -0.229353
7 PHI 0.314298
8 NYN 0.943557
9 ATL -0.833900
10 WAS -0.024601
11 HOU 0.187211
12 ARI -1.452568
13 MIL -0.901857
14 COL 1.604588
15 MIA 0.498752
Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotW FirstHalfLateW SecondHalfTotW SecondHalfLateW
0 CIN 650 161 647 165
1 SLN 737 141 790 179
2 PIT 635 157 635 145
3 CHN 666 150 738 136
4 SFN 697 174 697 175
5 SDN 637 179 650 137
6 LAN 744 177 773 166
7 PHI 664 152 742 168
8 NYN 667 142 690 167
9 ATL 709 185 742 159
10 WAS 664 159 708 155
11 HOU 357 82 413 84
12 ARI 673 169 650 143
13 MIL 681 153 687 153
14 COL 641 123 652 154
15 MIA 630 143 654 152
Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotL FirstHalfLateL SecondHalfTotL SecondHalfLateL
0 CIN 706 162 752 161
1 SLN 616 154 610 146
2 PIT 712 157 769 146
3 CHN 680 170 669 156
4 SFN 666 145 692 165
5 SDN 730 159 738 146
6 LAN 624 139 613 146
7 PHI 692 155 656 163
8 NYN 683 178 713 171
9 ATL 651 144 651 147
10 WAS 693 175 687 163
11 HOU 437 97 413 88
12 ARI 699 173 732 167
13 MIL 677 155 709 167
14 COL 723 167 740 152
15 MIA 725 177 742 162
First and 2nd half improvement ZScores
Team FirstHalfImprovementZScores SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0 CIN 0.112 0.317
1 SLN -0.377 2.360
2 PIT 0.153 -0.035
3 CHN -0.663 -1.374
4 SFN 1.336 0.740
5 SDN 0.969 -0.599
6 LAN 1.704 1.444
7 PHI 0.031 0.387
8 NYN -1.316 -0.247
9 ATL 1.826 0.881
10 WAS -0.500 -0.528
11 HOU -0.459 -0.247
12 ARI -0.010 -1.656
13 MIL 0.071 -0.951
14 COL -1.642 0.176
15 MIA -1.234 -0.669
Here's the input data generated by the custom program designed to extract the scenario.
Apr includes March reg season games. Sept includes Oct reg season games. Montreal is included as WSH. The Astros switching leagues in 2013 is accounted for so only 2003-2012 Houston data is accounted for.
Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,TotAprW,TotAprL,TotMayW,TotMayL,TotJunW,TotJunL,TotJulW,TotJulL,TotAugW,TotAugL,TotSepW,TotSepL
CIN,51,57,60,54,50,51,56,50,52,55,57,56,199,228,236,242,215,236,208,233,226,254,213,265
SLN,47,57,52,45,42,52,62,49,58,43,59,54,249,174,255,219,233,223,251,190,279,194,260,226
PIT,51,41,55,55,51,61,50,38,48,54,47,54,196,222,230,246,209,244,220,219,205,276,210,274
CHN,48,49,52,69,50,52,43,53,43,50,50,53,213,198,227,243,226,239,233,208,245,237,260,224
SFN,58,37,73,48,43,60,55,48,53,59,67,58,217,210,248,228,232,228,220,217,238,243,239,232
SDN,49,58,70,53,60,48,41,56,45,43,51,47,193,245,236,241,208,244,192,245,232,239,226,254
LAN,58,53,56,46,63,40,58,40,53,57,55,49,237,196,265,208,242,220,240,191,270,207,263,215
PHI,56,51,51,48,45,56,63,51,56,56,49,56,214,207,245,230,205,255,237,201,247,226,258,229
NYN,44,47,66,67,32,64,61,48,48,67,58,56,220,197,238,237,209,249,217,219,241,240,232,254
ATL,55,48,67,48,63,48,52,44,50,49,57,54,215,204,261,221,233,226,240,195,256,222,246,234
WAS,55,54,49,63,55,58,44,58,48,52,63,53,204,225,237,239,223,229,207,228,250,231,251,228
HOU,30,28,26,36,26,33,18,37,35,27,31,24,108,133,126,160,123,144,120,141,142,142,151,130
ARI,57,54,52,66,60,53,41,51,50,52,52,64,225,213,224,251,224,235,202,232,228,248,220,252
MIL,47,45,57,61,49,49,54,59,45,50,54,58,215,214,232,244,234,219,211,240,227,236,249,233
COL,47,51,43,60,33,56,40,49,65,48,49,55,211,213,209,267,221,243,208,228,214,263,230,249
MIA,49,60,54,59,40,58,54,55,49,51,49,56,197,222,218,261,215,242,226,213,202,274,226,255
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