This is the same scenario as this but with weights applied to each number to account for their percent within the total population of occurences within the sample.
Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.
ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5
"Which team in the AL West had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2013 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.
From July to the end of regular season:
2nd half inn Rally wins: Seattle Mariners 0.97
2nd half late inn losses: Houston Astros -1.75
Note: Houston did well in the W/L totals but did decline in their 2nd half output of late inning rallies.
Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
Team ZScoreTotalImprovement
0 OAK -0.374659
1 SEA 0.968737
2 ANA 0.292859
3 TEX 0.868416
4 HOU -1.755353
Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotW FirstHalfLateW SecondHalfTotW SecondHalfLateW
0 OAK 297 14.097561 293 16.200000
1 SEA 285 13.280488 270 14.450000
2 ANA 284 12.881098 283 14.028125
3 TEX 299 12.881098 265 10.878125
4 HOU 316 12.487805 286 9.112500
Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotL FirstHalfLateL SecondHalfTotL SecondHalfLateL
0 OAK 277 10.843373 267 14.509554
1 SEA 289 17.858434 290 14.503185
2 ANA 288 12.337349 279 12.006369
3 TEX 271 15.614458 300 9.522293
4 HOU 260 10.484940 272 15.082803
Team FirstHalfLateWinWeight SecondHalfLateWinWeight \
0 OAK 0.207317 0.225000
1 SEA 0.201220 0.212500
2 ANA 0.198171 0.209375
3 TEX 0.198171 0.184375
4 HOU 0.195122 0.168750
FirstHalfLateLossWeight SecondHalfLateLossWeight
0 0.180723 0.216561
1 0.231928 0.210191
2 0.192771 0.207006
3 0.216867 0.207006
4 0.177711 0.203822
First and 2nd half improvement ZScores
Team FirstHalfImprovementZScores SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0 OAK 1.215 0.632
1 SEA -1.460 0.046
2 ANA 0.289 0.744
3 TEX -0.830 0.520
4 HOU 0.787 -1.943If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see: https://baseballfan999.wixsite.com/baseballdat/post/what-does-the-zscore-tell-you The difference in won loss spread ((late inn win)-(late inn loss)) between 1st/2nd half of season. Orange means "The games they won by late inning rallies - games they lost in the late innings". Blue means "The games they won by late inning rallies - the games they lost in the late innings". Positive values are always good. Focus on the Orange ZScore (late inn win and losses) between 1st/2nd half of season. Positive value means "better in the 2nd half".
Here is the input file. Apr includes Mar and Sept includes Oct reg season.
Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,TotAprW,TotAprL,TotMayW,TotMayL,TotJunW,TotJunL,TotJulW,TotJulL,TotAugW,TotAugL,TotSepW,TotSepL
OAK,21,24,21,18,26,18,30,19,22,21,20,27,95,94,97,99,105,84,96,79,95,97,102,91
SEA,25,21,22,27,19,29,20,23,23,23,25,23,91,93,98,99,96,97,84,89,93,101,93,100
ANA,20,26,24,19,21,19,19,18,22,23,26,17,88,96,103,96,93,96,91,81,94,102,98,96
TEX,20,25,24,19,21,28,16,17,26,15,17,14,89,93,108,91,102,87,65,111,107,87,93,102
HOU,20,15,20,22,24,22,16,18,22,28,16,28,93,93,116,84,107,83,83,87,98,99,105,86
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