Please see Disclaimer here regarding all of the results contained within all pages.
Our Criteria here: Win - a given team wins the game if they were losing/tied (in this order) in extra innings, 9th, 8th or 7th inning. Loss - a given team loses the game when they were winning/tied in extra innings, 9th, 8th, or 8th inning.
ZScore: is based on the population standard deviation and mean here. It tells you how many standard deviations from the mean you are. For wins, a positive ZScore is what you want as that relfects "you came back to win more than others". So 1.5 is better than 0.5. For the loss, a negative ZScore is what you want as that reflects "you did not lose your leads like others around the mean". So -1.5 is better than -0.5
"Which team in the AL had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2003 and 2019 with late inning rallies and late inning losses.
From July to the end of regular season:
2nd half inn Rally wins: Texas Rangers: 1.87 but still an overall losing record in 2nd half
If you look at the data below, you'll see Texas is influenced by the fact that they lost a lot less in the late innings in the 2nd half.
2nd half late inn losses: Baltimore Orioles: -1.67
If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see:https://baseballfan999.wixsite.com/baseballdat/post/what-does-the-zscore-tell-you
Note: We did take the league change where the Houston switched leagues after 2012 so their figures from 2013 on were not included. We also treat Montreal as WSH.
The difference in won loss spread ((late inn win)-(late inn loss)) between 1st/2nd half of season. Orange means "The games they won by late inning rallies - games they lost in the late innings". Blue means "The games they won by late inning rallies - the games they lost in the late innings". Postive values are always good. The 2nd half surge has helped many teams get into many playoffs during this period.Focus on the Orange
The figures based on this time frame 2003-2019
Green: Most improved "devil magic" AL team in the 2nd half in this study
Red: Most declined team in their league
Second Half ZScore improvement over First Half:
Team ZScoreTotalImprovement
0 BAL -1.672749
1 NYA -0.151090
2 BOS -1.138450
3 MIN 0.201985
4 DET 0.351964
5 CHA -1.318633
6 CLE 1.060197
7 KCA 0.275933
8 TEX 1.870499
9 OAK 0.785236
10 TOR -0.484376
11 SEA -0.559365
12 ANA 1.139352
13 TBA 0.756073
14 HOU -1.116578
Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotW FirstHalfLateW SecondHalfTotW SecondHalfLateW
0 BAL 624 149 625 129
1 NYA 766 141 835 161
2 BOS 773 159 759 164
3 MIN 672 155 708 161
4 DET 667 155 644 138
5 CHA 674 159 667 139
6 CLE 672 142 744 146
7 KCA 590 150 636 135
8 TEX 713 139 690 133
9 OAK 695 174 738 165
10 TOR 682 153 676 146
11 SEA 663 157 632 156
12 ANA 717 152 749 165
13 TBA 669 146 699 155
14 HOU 316 64 286 54
Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
Team FirstHalfTotL FirstHalfLateL SecondHalfTotL SecondHalfLateL
0 BAL 724 136 781 148
1 NYA 573 114 581 129
2 BOS 587 127 635 144
3 MIN 668 144 708 146
4 DET 675 160 766 144
5 CHA 670 152 743 160
6 CLE 675 153 661 147
7 KCA 753 162 775 153
8 TEX 648 154 704 124
9 OAK 671 158 649 131
10 TOR 689 161 706 173
11 SEA 699 158 760 174
12 ANA 648 144 640 136
13 TBA 693 153 693 156
14 HOU 260 59 272 74
First and 2nd half improvement ZScores
Team FirstHalfImprovementZScores SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0 BAL 0.656 -0.950
1 NYA 1.676 1.531
2 BOS 2.040 0.947
3 MIN 0.510 0.704
4 DET -0.656 -0.318
5 CHA 0.219 -1.047
6 CLE -1.093 -0.075
7 KCA -1.166 -0.901
8 TEX -1.384 0.412
9 OAK 0.874 1.628
10 TOR -0.874 -1.339
11 SEA -0.364 -0.901
12 ANA 0.291 1.385
13 TBA -0.801 -0.075
14 HOU 0.073 -0.999Here's the input data generated by the custom program designed to extract the scenario.Apr includes March reg season games. Sept includes Oct reg season games. Montreal is included as WSH. The Astros switching leagues in 2013 is accounted for so only 2003-2012 Houston data is accounted
Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,TotAprW,TotAprL,TotMayW,TotMayL,TotJunW,TotJunL,TotJulW,TotJulL,TotAugW,TotAugL,TotSepW,TotSepL
BAL,57,33,51,56,41,47,42,41,33,49,54,58,207,210,216,259,201,255,195,243,213,267,217,271
NYA,42,40,45,43,54,31,60,37,49,41,52,51,236,179,263,207,267,187,264,176,284,203,287,202
BOS,62,38,52,45,45,44,53,44,55,48,56,52,243,180,272,211,258,196,239,198,264,214,256,223
MIN,45,38,50,69,60,37,47,48,55,51,59,47,197,210,239,235,236,223,224,219,241,245,243,244
DET,42,44,54,65,59,51,31,45,55,46,52,53,210,203,229,247,228,225,214,229,215,267,215,270
CHA,52,45,60,45,47,62,43,53,52,58,44,49,210,203,238,241,226,226,209,227,230,255,228,261
CLE,39,53,60,50,43,50,42,51,60,54,44,42,195,215,246,230,231,230,220,219,263,216,261,226
KCA,46,62,53,60,51,40,49,42,42,58,44,53,174,238,194,283,222,232,193,250,211,271,232,254
TEX,40,54,52,47,47,53,41,38,49,43,43,43,214,214,257,219,242,215,200,236,255,225,235,243
OAK,56,55,54,57,64,46,60,39,57,40,48,52,220,215,223,249,252,207,236,198,256,220,246,231
TOR,45,69,58,49,50,43,45,64,40,54,61,55,200,233,260,226,222,230,205,224,222,251,249,231
SEA,51,47,50,62,56,49,51,59,55,53,50,62,210,219,219,257,234,223,193,246,224,250,215,264
ANA,37,54,62,50,53,40,40,39,58,51,67,46,216,217,256,225,245,206,240,193,245,231,264,216
TBA,49,48,55,61,42,44,37,45,60,53,58,58,208,216,237,242,224,235,217,219,249,226,233,248
HOU,20,15,20,22,24,22,16,18,22,28,16,28,93,93,116,84,107,83,83,87,98,99,105,86
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