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Comeback Wins and Blown Lead Losses - 2012 - 2019 NL

Updated: Feb 10, 2020

"You're losing the game at one point but come from behind and win -or- you're winning the game at one point but end up losing. Which team in the NL had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2012 and 2019? A positive value indicates the team did better. A negative value, the team did worse.

From the July to the end of the season The best team: St. Louis Cardinals ZScore: 2.76

The worst team: San Francisco Giants - ZScore: -1.88


If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see:https://baseballfan999.wixsite.com/baseballdat/post/what-does-the-zscore-tell-you



 

Most improved Team in 2nd half of season compared to their first half with comeback wins.


1st half (Mar-June) and 2nd (July - End) half side by side. The widest gap where Orange > Blue indicates most improved.


The figures:

The figures based on this time frame 2012-2019

Green = Most improved NL "devil magic" team in 2nd half of season

Red = Most declined


Second Half Improvement:
    Team  ZScoreTotalImprovement
0   CIN                0.448218
1   SLN                2.764303
2   PIT                0.245566
3   CHN                0.789795
4   SFN               -1.883879
5   SDN               -0.871135
6   LAN                0.832179
7   PHI                0.251797
8   NYN                0.308281
9   ATL               -1.794351
10  HOU               -0.153108
11  WAS               -0.204710
12  ARI               -0.170345
13  MIL               -1.175741
14  COL                0.108625
15  MIA                0.504507

Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
    Team  FirstHalfTotW  FirstHalfRallyW  SecondHalfTotW  SecondHalfRallyW
0   CIN            303              104             302                92
1   SLN            345              110             378               139
2   PIT            331              119             332               125
3   CHN            320              104             351               112
4   SFN            333              129             310               111
5   SDN            287              121             291                94
6   LAN            371              123             386               132
7   PHI            287              108             301               124
8   NYN            301              112             336               104
9   ATL            332              126             331                97
10  HOU             32               11              23                 5
11  WAS            351              114             379               101
12  ARI            329              126             305               110
13  MIL            320              118             331               104
14  COL            311              108             285               108
15  MIA            279              107             276               107

Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
    Team  FirstHalfTotL  FirstHalfBlownL  SecondHalfTotL  SecondHalfBlownL
0   CIN            337              128             354               122
1   SLN            293              121             280                92
2   PIT            308              108             324                96
3   CHN            316              110             310               101
4   SFN            318              107             335               111
5   SDN            363              120             355               110
6   LAN            284              108             256                83
7   PHI            360              117             348               129
8   NYN            339              126             320               119
9   ATL            311              109             321               105
10  HOU             46               19              61                20
11  WAS            289              114             277               103
12  ARI            321              132             341               122
13  MIL            326              118             320               127
14  COL            337              120             364               123
15  MIA            361              125             378               124
   Team  ZScoresRallyWinsFirstHalf  ZScoresRallyWinsSecondHalf
0   CIN                  -0.179589                   -0.421129
1   SLN                   0.047260                    1.219748
2   PIT                   0.387535                    0.730976
3   CHN                  -0.179589                    0.277116
4   SFN                   0.765617                    0.242204
5   SDN                   0.463151                   -0.351305
6   LAN                   0.538768                    0.975362
7   PHI                  -0.028356                    0.696064
8   NYN                   0.122877                   -0.002182
9   ATL                   0.652193                   -0.246568
10  HOU                  -3.695758                   -3.458498
11  WAS                   0.198493                   -0.106919
12  ARI                   0.652193                    0.207292
13  MIL                   0.349726                   -0.002182
14  COL                  -0.028356                    0.137467
15  MIA                  -0.066164                    0.102555

Second Half Won/Loss Spread over First Half Won / Loss spread:
    Team  FirstHalfImprovementZScores  SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0   CIN                    -1.718593                     -1.270375
1   SLN                    -0.687148                      2.077155
2   PIT                     1.063486                      1.309051
3   CHN                    -0.253638                      0.536156
4   SFN                     1.914439                      0.030560
5   SDN                     0.240763                     -0.630373
6   LAN                     1.371312                      2.203491
7   PHI                    -0.515516                     -0.263719
8   NYN                    -0.940166                     -0.631885
9   ATL                     1.520796                     -0.273555
10  HOU                    -0.004455                     -0.157563
11  WAS                     0.190384                     -0.014326
12  ARI                    -0.351090                     -0.521435
13  MIL                     0.172665                     -1.003076
14  COL                    -0.759675                     -0.651050
15  MIA                    -1.243564                     -0.739056
   Team  RallyWinsFirstHalf  BlownLeadsFirstHalf  RallyWinsSecondHalf  \
0   CIN                 104                  128                   92   
1   SLN                 110                  121                  139   
2   PIT                 119                  108                  125   
3   CHN                 104                  110                  112   
4   SFN                 129                  107                  111   
5   SDN                 121                  120                   94   
6   LAN                 123                  108                  132   
7   PHI                 108                  117                  124   
8   NYN                 112                  126                  104   
9   ATL                 126                  109                   97   
10  HOU                  11                   19                    5   
11  WAS                 114                  114                  101   
12  ARI                 126                  132                  110   
13  MIL                 118                  118                  104   
14  COL                 108                  120                  108   
15  MIA                 107                  125                  107   

    BlownLeadsSecondHalf  
0                    122  
1                     92  
2                     96  
3                    101  
4                    111  
5                    110  
6                     83  
7                    129  
8                    119  
9                    105  
10                    20  
11                   103  
12                   122  
13                   127  
14                   123  
15                   124  
   Team  FirstHalfWPercentTot  SecondHalfWPercentTot
0   CIN              0.530612               0.469388
1   SLN              0.441767               0.558233
2   PIT              0.487705               0.512295
3   CHN              0.481481               0.518519
4   SFN              0.537500               0.462500
5   SDN              0.562791               0.437209
6   LAN              0.482353               0.517647
7   PHI              0.465517               0.534483
8   NYN              0.518519               0.481481
9   ATL              0.565022               0.434978
10  HOU              0.687500               0.312500
11  WAS              0.530233               0.469767
12  ARI              0.533898               0.466102
13  MIL              0.531532               0.468468
14  COL              0.500000               0.500000
15  MIA              0.500000               0.500000   

Here's the input data generated by the custom program designed to extract the scenario.Apr includes March reg season games. Sept includes Oct reg season games. Houston only included in 2012.


Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,TotAprW,TotAprL,TotMayW,TotMayL,TotJunW,TotJunL,TotJulW,TotJulL,TotAugW,TotAugL,TotSepW,TotSepL

CIN,23,30,27,24,18,29,17,23,19,29,27,25,88,117,109,112,106,108,101,102,105,124,96,128

SLN,15,25,26,23,20,22,24,24,27,18,33,23,117,85,119,102,109,106,114,91,136,89,128,100

PIT,28,20,25,23,18,26,26,11,24,21,26,30,103,98,117,109,111,101,116,89,107,116,109,119

CHN,21,19,20,37,22,17,24,23,22,24,21,24,100,94,108,112,112,110,109,94,124,104,118,112

SFN,30,16,36,14,18,28,28,23,22,26,28,27,101,108,125,101,107,109,96,102,108,117,106,116

SDN,21,24,28,24,27,21,20,27,20,23,23,20,88,125,102,122,97,116,89,113,105,114,97,128

LAN,23,31,23,22,38,21,30,14,24,23,22,20,115,93,125,98,131,93,125,71,130,92,131,93

PHI,29,25,22,24,19,29,25,23,25,25,16,29,101,102,102,121,84,137,99,101,104,119,98,128

NYN,26,24,25,36,17,35,28,21,21,29,31,24,110,88,101,123,90,128,100,98,115,116,121,106

ATL,29,28,31,24,32,22,20,20,23,23,29,16,103,96,112,115,117,100,100,102,117,109,114,110

HOU,3,5,1,6,0,2,0,6,2,3,3,2,9,14,13,15,10,17,3,24,5,22,15,15

WAS,29,26,25,22,21,24,19,25,26,19,26,22,111,94,123,99,117,96,108,92,134,92,137,93

ARI,32,30,25,31,30,18,12,23,27,30,16,30,111,102,100,121,118,98,94,105,108,115,103,121

MIL,24,17,21,32,22,23,26,26,19,23,28,26,105,103,107,116,108,107,99,108,103,114,129,98

COL,26,21,22,24,16,30,13,20,31,28,21,22,109,99,106,113,96,125,84,114,96,128,105,122

MIA,26,32,25,25,18,25,26,26,21,24,23,32,80,121,98,127,101,113,97,107,85,140,94,131



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