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Comeback Wins and Blown Lead Losses - AL 2012-2019

Updated: Feb 10, 2020

"You're losing the game at one point but come from behind and win -or- you're winning the game at one point but end up losing. Which team in the AL had the BEST improvement between the first half of the season and the second half of the season between 2012 and 2019? A positive value indicates the team did better. A negative value, the team did worse.

From the July to the end of the season


The best team: Kansas City Royals ZScore: 1.75

The worst team: Houston Astros - ZScore: -3.082 (even tho they started in 2013)

If you want to see the significance again of the ZScore and what it can be telling you, please see:https://baseballfan999.wixsite.com/baseballdat/post/what-does-the-zscore-tell-you Most improved Team in 2nd half of season compared to their first half with comeback wins.



1st half (Mar-June) and 2nd (July - End) half side by side. The widest gap where Orange > Blue indicates most improved.




The figures based on this time frame 2012-2019

Green = Most improved AL "devil magic" team in 2nd half of season

Red = Most declined

Second Half Improvement:
    Team  ZScoreTotalImprovement
0   BAL                0.309413
1   NYA               -0.331708
2   BOS               -1.576333
3   MIN               -0.902589
4   DET               -0.071214
5   CHA               -1.108643
6   CLE               -0.047646
7   KCA                1.753471
8   TEX               -0.436951
9   OAK                1.456801
10  TOR                0.045130
11  SEA                1.590023
12  ANA                1.578146
13  TBA                0.824261
14  HOU               -3.082162

Total wins and Late Inn rally wins for first half and second half of season
    Team  FirstHalfTotW  FirstHalfRallyW  SecondHalfTotW  SecondHalfRallyW
0   BAL            306              114             314               111
1   NYA            360              135             369               133
2   BOS            352              120             341               122
3   MIN            299              120             309               133
4   DET            304              109             302               113
5   CHA            288              121             288               112
6   CLE            336              108             370               104
7   KCA            295              111             325               133
8   TEX            349              131             308               120
9   OAK            334              114             350               129
10  TOR            316              118             312               122
11  SEA            319              112             311               123
12  ANA            327              115             329               121
13  TBA            326              107             347               116
14  HOU            316              123             286                94

Total losses and Late Inn losses for first half and second half of season
    Team  FirstHalfTotL  FirstHalfBlownL  SecondHalfTotL  SecondHalfBlownL
0   BAL            335              126             341               115
1   NYA            275               95             292               109
2   BOS            298               93             305               126
3   MIN            332              126             356               145
4   DET            330              124             357               125
5   CHA            348              127             371               127
6   CLE            301               90             287               100
7   KCA            338              119             338               118
8   TEX            300              108             340               108
9   OAK            319              129             293               120
10  TOR            332              114             336               119
11  SEA            335              126             331               113
12  ANA            323              125             317               108
13  TBA            324              122             300               118
14  HOU            260               92             272               114
   Team  ZScoresRallyWinsFirstHalf  ZScoresRallyWinsSecondHalf
0   BAL                  -0.408959                   -0.750064
1   NYA                   2.274834                    1.295565
2   BOS                   0.357839                    0.272751
3   MIN                   0.357839                    1.295565
4   DET                  -1.047957                   -0.564098
5   CHA                   0.485639                   -0.657081
6   CLE                  -1.175757                   -1.400946
7   KCA                  -0.792358                    1.295565
8   TEX                   1.763635                    0.086784
9   OAK                  -0.408959                    0.923633
10  TOR                   0.102240                    0.272751
11  SEA                  -0.664558                    0.365734
12  ANA                  -0.281159                    0.179767
13  TBA                  -1.303557                   -0.285148
14  HOU                   0.741238                   -2.330778

Second Half Won/Loss Spread over First Half Won / Loss spread:
    Team  FirstHalfImprovementZScores  SecondHalfImprovementZScores
0   BAL                    -0.731439                     -0.422026
1   NYA                     2.173241                      1.841532
2   BOS                     1.112544                     -0.463789
3   MIN                    -0.273558                     -1.176147
4   DET                    -1.029001                     -1.100214
5   CHA                    -0.239248                     -1.347891
6   CLE                     0.322791                      0.275146
7   KCA                    -0.666358                      1.087113
8   TEX                     1.321946                      0.884995
9   OAK                    -0.857449                      0.599353
10  TOR                     0.077852                      0.122982
11  SEA                    -0.884066                      0.705957
12  ANA                    -0.613123                      0.965023
13  TBA                    -1.097621                     -0.273360
14  HOU                     1.383488                     -1.698674
   Team  RallyWinsFirstHalf  BlownLeadsFirstHalf  RallyWinsSecondHalf  \
0   BAL                 114                  126                  111   
1   NYA                 135                   95                  133   
2   BOS                 120                   93                  122   
3   MIN                 120                  126                  133   
4   DET                 109                  124                  113   
5   CHA                 121                  127                  112   
6   CLE                 108                   90                  104   
7   KCA                 111                  119                  133   
8   TEX                 131                  108                  120   
9   OAK                 114                  129                  129   
10  TOR                 118                  114                  122   
11  SEA                 112                  126                  123   
12  ANA                 115                  125                  121   
13  TBA                 107                  122                  116   
14  HOU                 123                   92                   94   

    BlownLeadsSecondHalf  
0                    115  
1                    109  
2                    126  
3                    145  
4                    125  
5                    127  
6                    100  
7                    118  
8                    108  
9                    120  
10                   119  
11                   113  
12                   108  
13                   118  
14                   114  
   Team  FirstHalfWPercentTot  SecondHalfWPercentTot
0   BAL              0.506667               0.493333
1   NYA              0.503731               0.496269
2   BOS              0.495868               0.504132
3   MIN              0.474308               0.525692
4   DET              0.490991               0.509009
5   CHA              0.519313               0.480687
6   CLE              0.509434               0.490566
7   KCA              0.454918               0.545082
8   TEX              0.521912               0.478088
9   OAK              0.469136               0.530864
10  TOR              0.491667               0.508333
11  SEA              0.476596               0.523404
12  ANA              0.487288               0.512712
13  TBA              0.479821               0.520179
14  HOU              0.566820               0.433180

Here's the input data generated by the custom program designed to extract the scenario.Apr includes March reg season games. Sept includes Oct reg season games. Houston only included in 2012.


Team,AprW,AprL,MayW,MayL,JunW,JunL,JulW,JulL,AugW,AugL,SepW,SepL,AprW_LBY5Plus,AprW_LBY4,AprW_LBY3,AprW_LBY2,AprW_LBY1,MayW_LBY5Plus,MayW_LBY4,MayW_LBY3,MayW_LBY2,MayW_LBY1,JunW_LBY5Plus,JunW_LBY4,JunW_LBY3,JunW_LBY2,JunW_LBY1,JulW_LBY5Plus,JulW_LBY4,JulW_LBY3,JulW_LBY2,JulW_LBY1,AugW_LBY5Plus,AugW_LBY4,AugW_LBY3,AugW_LBY2,AugW_LBY1,SepW_LBY5Plus,SepW_LBY4,SepW_LBY3,SepW_LBY2,SepW_LBY1,AprL_WBY5Plus,AprL_WBY4,AprL_WBY3,AprL_WBY2,AprL_WBY1,MayL_WBY5Plus,MayL_WBY4,MayL_WBY3,MayL_WBY2,MayL_WBY1,JunL_WBY5Plus,JunL_WBY4,JunL_WBY3,JunL_WBY2,JunL_WBY1,JulL_WBY5Plus,JulL_WBY4,JulL_WBY3,JulL_WBY2,JulL_WBY1,AugL_WBY5Plus,AugL_WBY4,AugL_WBY3,AugL_WBY2,AugL_WBY1,SepL_WBY5Plus,SepL_WBY4,SepL_WBY3,SepL_WBY2,SepL_WBY1

BAL,99,99,101,124,106,112,98,105,107,117,109,119,2,1,4,13,19,1,2,8,12,16,1,2,6,9,18,2,2,3,8,21,2,4,2,14,15,1,1,9,11,16,2,1,6,9,17,2,2,6,12,26,0,1,5,8,29,1,0,2,7,22,2,1,3,13,20,2,1,7,9,25

NYA,115,83,124,97,121,95,114,90,129,100,126,102,3,0,7,8,24,1,0,3,14,28,0,5,5,9,28,3,0,5,18,25,0,2,8,9,19,0,2,10,5,27,1,1,2,10,17,0,1,3,6,19,0,4,3,13,15,1,1,5,9,21,1,1,5,12,13,2,3,7,4,24

BOS,115,88,121,107,116,103,109,94,119,104,113,107,3,3,5,16,16,1,2,7,13,18,2,2,5,8,19,1,3,7,6,17,4,2,7,12,18,3,3,11,10,18,1,3,5,10,11,1,2,5,7,25,2,2,1,4,14,0,1,4,7,26,2,1,12,17,19,1,0,2,13,21

MIN,84,105,113,110,102,117,96,109,107,123,106,124,1,0,4,15,16,1,1,6,12,20,0,1,3,11,29,2,0,5,7,22,2,2,2,17,28,0,2,7,9,28,0,2,4,14,24,2,2,2,16,19,0,2,6,9,24,2,3,1,20,27,2,3,4,10,26,1,2,5,12,27

DET,104,90,105,124,95,116,101,105,103,124,98,128,0,2,4,7,22,1,1,5,10,24,1,2,5,7,18,1,1,3,6,26,2,2,6,14,18,1,1,3,8,21,2,0,0,13,13,0,2,11,16,17,2,1,4,14,29,2,1,3,12,22,3,0,6,7,26,0,1,5,7,30

CHA,93,102,107,122,88,124,85,116,107,121,96,134,1,2,5,13,15,1,2,2,19,25,1,2,1,10,22,2,1,2,12,18,1,1,8,18,18,0,2,4,8,17,0,1,3,7,19,3,3,3,14,19,4,4,8,11,28,1,2,4,8,20,0,2,6,14,32,1,0,6,8,23

CLE,95,98,122,108,119,95,112,90,121,106,137,91,1,1,2,10,12,1,2,5,13,19,2,0,2,9,29,0,1,5,10,21,2,1,4,5,21,0,1,2,8,23,1,2,3,6,13,1,2,3,11,22,0,0,4,5,17,2,1,4,11,13,0,1,2,8,23,0,0,5,11,19

KCA,84,112,104,120,107,106,93,113,119,109,113,116,0,2,1,9,20,2,3,4,9,20,1,2,6,12,20,1,2,1,12,20,1,1,1,8,37,1,0,7,13,28,0,2,7,14,18,1,0,9,7,29,0,0,2,13,17,0,0,9,10,22,2,2,4,13,18,0,2,6,8,22

TEX,106,99,122,105,121,96,74,125,126,97,108,118,2,0,7,13,16,1,2,4,18,22,1,2,4,18,21,0,1,7,4,20,3,3,2,16,26,0,0,7,10,21,3,4,5,8,11,2,2,5,8,21,3,1,3,6,26,2,5,5,6,23,2,0,3,12,16,0,2,6,12,14

OAK,106,107,108,115,120,97,115,84,113,107,122,102,3,0,3,11,16,1,3,2,10,22,2,3,6,13,19,2,4,5,11,30,2,0,1,6,26,0,4,4,11,23,3,1,5,11,16,0,3,5,9,31,2,2,7,10,24,1,1,4,11,21,3,2,6,13,18,0,5,7,10,18

TOR,94,113,112,116,110,103,97,106,106,115,109,115,1,4,2,10,18,2,2,2,12,27,3,1,7,11,16,3,1,5,8,24,3,2,8,8,19,2,1,5,11,22,2,1,4,15,18,0,3,6,10,22,0,2,4,9,18,4,2,5,5,19,1,5,2,13,23,0,2,6,14,18

SEA,102,106,110,116,107,113,99,100,108,113,104,118,1,2,5,12,16,0,3,3,12,19,1,1,2,14,21,1,1,6,11,21,2,3,5,14,26,1,3,4,7,18,4,0,5,14,21,0,4,3,14,20,2,0,5,9,25,1,2,1,12,22,3,3,6,9,16,2,0,5,6,25

ANA,96,111,121,107,110,105,105,93,107,117,117,107,3,0,4,10,13,0,3,5,10,26,3,2,6,9,21,0,3,5,8,22,2,4,6,10,20,1,2,10,10,18,3,0,5,12,23,0,1,2,19,20,0,3,3,11,23,2,1,3,6,17,5,4,6,5,26,0,2,6,9,16

TBA,105,97,117,109,104,118,108,93,116,105,123,102,0,3,4,8,15,1,1,6,12,27,0,2,4,7,17,2,0,3,8,25,1,1,5,12,19,0,0,2,13,25,1,2,2,14,22,1,4,6,12,25,1,1,3,12,16,1,1,4,11,22,1,2,2,7,26,1,1,14,7,18

HOU,93,93,116,84,107,83,83,87,98,99,105,86,2,1,2,10,16,1,3,4,15,30,0,2,3,9,25,0,2,4,5,13,0,1,2,10,22,1,0,7,6,21,1,0,2,13,12,1,0,4,12,18,1,0,1,10,17,0,2,9,8,26,1,2,3,11,23,0,2,4,3,20



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